I've been discussing the Xbox 360 vs the PS3 with Blue Jedi via PM for the past few days, and I have to say that I'm with the rest of you. There are hardly any exclusive games due for release on the 360. Most are also being released on either the PC, PS3 or both.
He did send me a list of "exclusive" titles, but when I looked at them only 5 were actual Xbox 360 exclusives, and only one of those has actually been released so far.
At this stage it is hard to say what might happen in the next couple of years, but I personally think the PS3 will end up being more popular and come out on top as it did with the past two generations.
Why? First the brand. There are a lot of people who love the PS1 and PS2. Why haven't they already bought into the PS3? Easy. The price of the system still needs to come down so that the average person finds it affordable. Also HDTVs are still not common place in most homes. I expect this to dramatically change within the next couple of years, and once this happens they will be looking for an HD film format to buy into. Knowing the Playstation brand and the PS3 being able to play Blu-Ray discs out of the box means it's a win win situation. In contrast the Xbox 360 needs an additional HD-DVD external drive so you can run the HD-DVD discs, and most consumers will not buy into a product that you are then required to buy more hardware for, just to do the same task the PS3 can do as it is.
As I've mentioned in the PMs to Blue Jedi, the PS3 is still gaining momentum. It's less than a year old and so the first wave of software titles are still in development. The Xbox 360 in contrast has been out a lot longer, but it doesn't really have the killer line-up of titles you might expect after such a long lead time over the other next gen systems.
There is something else. Next to no exposure. Ask any average person in the street about the PS3 and they will have heard of it, and might even be able to tell you something about it. Ask them about the Xbox 360 and many will give you a blank expression. They don't know what it is, and on the whole don't care. I know people who are not gamers and when the Xbox 360 adverts were played in the cinema they didn't understand what was being advertised. Therefore those adverts failed. They are aimed at existing gamers. Sony know their market better. Just look at the Playstation sales of the past. It will win this generation, or Sony will die trying.
The Xbox 360 won't fail, but it will continue along the same path as the original Xbox. And it is American. For this reason it will never sell well in Japan compared to the Wii and PS3, and being American it will sell better in the USA than any other region and end up getting titles released that only appeal to the limited teen American demographic.
As for the Wii I think that will end up as all Nintendo systems have since the N64. A first party platform seeing great Nintendo created games that utilise the control system well, but that will be it. A gaming platform as Nintendo platforms have always been. Fun and generating enough money to keep Nintendo happy, but not something Sony need worry about.





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